Background and Information
Since the 1970s, jobs that afforded a decent living to Americans with less than a bachelor’s degree have been increasingly difficult to come by, to the point that they seem to have disappeared. These jobs — called “middle-skill jobs” because they required some experience, training, and education, but did not require a bachelor’s degree — have been decreasing as a share of the overall job market. At the same time, “lower-skill jobs” (requiring minimal education and training) and “higher-skill jobs” (requiring a bachelor’s degree at minimum) have both been on the upswing.
While individual workers at the lower end of the wage spectrum are often able to increase their take-home pay over time by accumulating skills, gaining experience, and sometimes changing career paths, some earn low wages indefinitely . . . At the same time, employer surveys indicate a shortage of qualified applicants, even during periods of high unemployment, suggesting that the often-discussed ‘skills gap’ does not disappear in times of abundant labor. (Demaria, Fee, & Wardrip, 2020, p. 2)
In a previous report (New York State Department of Labor, 2024), we showed that this national phenomenon (also referred to as “job polarization”) appeared to have impacted New York State as well, but the existence of Opportunity Occupations provides a potential path forward for low-wage workers. Though the specific definition of Opportunity Occupation can differ, in general the term refers to jobs that don’t require a bachelor’s degree but do pay decent wages (above the median wage for the area) and have growth potential. The concept was studied in two papers published jointly by the Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Atlanta (Wardrip, Fee, Nelson, & Andreason, 2015; Fee, Nelson, & Wardrip, 2019).
In our 2024 report, we defined Opportunity Occupations as those occupations that required less than a bachelor’s degree for entry, paid above the area annual median wage (the state’s median wage in the statewide analysis), and was projected to grow from 2020 through 2030.
In this paper, we highlight some of the characteristics of transitions between lower-wage occupations and Opportunity Occupations in New York State. This paper is inspired by a report published by the Federal Reserve Bank-Philadelphia (FRB-P) in 2020 (Demaria, Fee, & Wardrip, 2020). Similar to the FRB-P report:
We explore a skills-based approach to occupational mobility because it could both offer economic pathways out of lower-wage work for those without a bachelor’s degree and inform a more efficient and equitable talent identification process for employers. The lessons from this analysis . . . resonate both in a tight labor market when open positions are difficult to fill and in times of economic recovery, as millions search for jobs that leverage and fully reward their experience and aptitude. (Demaria, Fee, & Wardrip, 2020, p. 2)
This skills-based approach is based on the supportable notion that similar jobs (as determined by similar tasks being performed) require similar knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSAs) to perform. Accordingly, workers can transfer their KSAs from one job to another if the two jobs are similar enough in terms of the tasks performed.
A skills-based approach, if implemented in workforce development system, and by employers as part of the hiring process, can help both workers and businesses. Employers — who frequently decry a shortage of skilled workers (Melhorn, 2025), and a “skills mismatch” (Handel, 2005; Dychtwalk, Erickson, & Morison, 2006) — could see their talent pools enlarge considerably. Workers in search of jobs that pay well could see the field of occupations they can transfer into also enlarge considerably.
True occupational mobility helps both sides of the coin.
The Basics of the Current Paper
We model this paper on the FRB-P paper cited above. One important difference, though, is how we compare occupations to determine similarity. The FRB-P report relied on KSAs, but we rely on tasks. Our comparative approach is based on similarity metrics developed for the federal government’s “Occupational Information Network” database project (O*NET) (Dahlke J. , Putka, Shewach, & Lewis, 2022).
Using this task-based analysis, we develop “similarity scores,” ranging from 0 to 100, between pairings of the 689 occupations for which we have the required data. The occupation in the pairing that a person starts from is called the “origin occupation,” and the occupation in the pairing that person might potentially transition into is called the “destination occupation.”
The similarity scores should be considered roughly like a percentage. 100 is the best pairing (near complete, or about 100%, overlap between the tasks performed in the origin occupation and the destination occupation). Any occupation should have a similarity score of 100 (100%) with itself. A score of 0 means the two occupations in the pairing had no tasks in common.
We consider transitions that meet the following criteria.
- “New York State” is the region for both the origin occupation and the destination occupation. (We briefly analyze transitions within the various regions, but our focus is statewide. The dashboard that accompanies this paper can analyze transitions within regions.)
- The transition has a similarity score of 80 or more. (In other words, there is 80% or more overlap between the tasks of the destination and origin occupations.)
- There is a median wage increase of at least 10% from the origin occupation to the destination occupation.
- The destination occupation is an Opportunity Occupation, meeting all associated criteria and conditions described above.
- The destination occupation has over 5,000 jobs in New York State.
- The median wage of the origin occupation is less than $54,276 (the statewide median wage used for the Opportunity Occupations report).
We refer to these pairings as “top transitions” and they are the focus of our analysis.
Using O*NET KSA ratings data, we compiled data on 120 KSAs for each occupation and ranked each KSA by its “importance” and the “level” of proficiency required for an occupation.
More details regarding our method can be found in the Appendix section.
We attempted to answer the following research questions:
- What are the characteristics of top transitions?
- Which occupations provide lower-wage workers with the greatest potential for occupational mobility?
- Which labor market regions in New York State provide lower-wage workers with the greatest potential for upward occupational mobility?
- How does the demand for KSAs vary by occupational education requirements and pay level?
But first, we consider some of the basics of job transitions in New York State.
New York’s Job Transitions, by the Numbers
Figure 1, The Basics of Top Transitions
Transitions
Loading..........
The Data is Not Available
Employment
Loading..........
The Data is Not Available
Source: Calculated using data from the Occupational Employment and Wage Survey (OEWS) and the Occupational Information Network (O*NET).
Figure 1 shows that over half (50.6%) of all workers, and almost all (99.1%) of those employed in low-wage jobs could potentially transfer into an Opportunity Occupation. This amounts to 4,869,200 workers in low-wage jobs within reach of a top transition.
If there is a single takeaway from this report, it is that transitions to Opportunity Occupations are within reach of almost all low-wage workers in our state. New York State remains a state of opportunity for individuals without bachelor’s degrees.
Research Question 1: What are the characteristics of top transitions?
We consider several different characteristics.
Education Required by Top Pairings
There are 32 distinct educational pairings involved in top transitions. In terms of the numbers of transitions they are associated with, the most common were as follows:
Figure 2, The Most Common Education Pairings for Top Transitions
Source: Calculated using data from OEWS and O*NET.
By far the most common educational pairing for top transitions is high school (HS) or equivalent in both the origin and destination titles. No formal education to HS is the second most common pairing. The educational pairings reinforced just how within reach top transitions are for many low-wage workers.
Top Transitions by Similarity Score
Figure 3, Top Transitions with the Highest Slimilarity Score
- Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic ➡️ Industrial Machinery Mechanics – 100
- Physical Therapist Aides ➡️ Physical Therapist Assistants – 100
- Helpers–Pipelayers, Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters ➡️ Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters – 100
- Structural Metal Fabricators and Fitters ➡️ Sheet Metal Workers – 100
- Nursing Assistants ➡️ Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses – 99.9
- Helpers–Electricians ➡️ Electricians – 99.9
- Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic ➡️ Industrial Machinery Mechanics – 99.9
- Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders ➡️ Industrial Machinery Mechanics – 99.9
- Extruding, Forming, Pressing, and Compacting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders ➡️ Industrial Machinery Mechanics – 99.9
- Grinding, Lapping, Polishing, and Buffing Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic ➡️ Industrial Machinery Mechanics – 99.9
– Source: Calculated using data from OEWS and O*NET.
Most of these transitions are from lower-level titles in the skilled trades to journey-level titles within the skilled trades, either the same trade or a similar one. The rest are in health occupations, but followed a similar path.
Figure 4, Least Similar Top Transitions
There are 16 transitions that barely meet the similarity score criterion for a top transition (all 80.0):
- Retail Salespersons ➡️ First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers
- Retail Salespersons ➡️ Property, Real Estate, and Community Association Managers
- Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners ➡️ First-Line Supervisors of Transportation and Material Moving Workers, Except Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors
- Light Truck Drivers ➡️ Telecommunications Line Installers and Repairers
- Tutors and Teachers and Instructors, All Other ➡️ Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs
- Rehabilitation Counselors ➡️ Detectives and Criminal Investigators
- Hotel, Motel, and Resort Desk Clerks ➡️ Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs
- Automotive Body and Related Repairers ➡️ Telecommunications Equipment Installers and Repairers, Except Line Installers
- Phlebotomists ➡️ Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks
- Ushers, Lobby Attendants, and Ticket Takers ➡️ First-Line Supervisors of Transportation and Material Moving Workers, Except Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors
- Transportation Security Screeners ➡️ Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs
- Machine Feeders and Offbearers ➡️ Construction and Building Inspectors
- Helpers–Carpenters ➡️ Telecommunications Equipment Installers and Repairers, Except Line Installers
- Food Cooking Machine Operators and Tenders ➡️ Sheet Metal Workers
- Plating Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic ➡️ Telecommunications Equipment Installers and Repairers, Except Line Installers
- Woodworkers, All Other ➡️ Water and Wastewater Treatment Plant and System Operators
– Source: Calculated using data from OEWS and O*NET.
Here, we see more transitions between different occupational lines. The data suggest that transitions between different occupational lines potentially are harder than a direct line promotion, but often are still within reach.
Research Question 2: Which occupations provide lower-wage workers with the greatest potential for upward occupational mobility?
📍Origin Occupations
Figure 5, Origin Occupations with the Highest Number of Jobs
There are 247 distinct origin occupations involved in top transitions. In terms of employment, the top ten are as follows.
Source: Calculated using data from OEWS and O*NET.
Figure 6, Origin Occupations with the Highest Number of Top Transitions
In terms of the number of potential transitions into Opportunity Occupations, the top ten origin occupations are as follows.
Source: Calculated using data from OEWS and O*NET.
➡️ Destination Occupations
Figure 7, Destination Occupations with the Highest Number of Jobs
There are 65 distinct destination occupations involved in top transitions. In terms of employment, the top ten destination occupations are as follows.
Source: Calculated using data from OEWS and O*NET.
Figure 8, Destination Occupations with the Highest Number of Top Transitions
In terms of number of potential transitions from origin job titles, the top ten Opportunity Occupations are as follows.
Source: Calculated using data from OEWS and O*NET.
The average similarity scores between the highest-wage destination occupations and every origin occupation they were paired with in a top transition are as follows.
Figure 9, Average Similarity Score of the Highest-Paid Destination Occupations
Loading..........
The Data is Not Available
Source: Calculated using data from OEWS and O*NET.
Occupations that pay high wages and have high average similarity scores for all top transitions are jobs that are upwardly mobile and within reach of many low-wage workers.
Figure 10, Destination Occupations with the Highest Average Similarity Score
Destination occupations with the highest average similarity scores for all the top transitions with low-wage occupations.
Loading..........
The Data is Not Available
Source: Calculated using data from OEWS and O*NET.
Here are the destination occupations associated with the top ten average potential salary increases.
Figure 11, Destination Occupations with the Highest Average Potential Salary Increase
Source: Calculated using data from OEWS and O*NET.
Research Question 3: Which regions of New York State provide lower-wage workers with the greatest potential for occupational mobility?
In this section, we depart from the statewide analysis to examine transitions into Opportunity Occupations at the regional labor market level. The statewide figure of 5,000 or more jobs in a destination occupation to qualify as a top transition is not appropriate for the regions. We calculate a new number based on each region’s share of annual private sector employment in New York State from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). We applied the resulting percentage to the statewide figure of 5,000. The resulting regional job criteria were as follows.
Figure 12, Level of Employment to Qualify as Top Transition
Loading..........
The Data is Not Available
Source: Calculated using data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).
Figure 13, Transitions and Potential Raises by Region
The count of top transitions is calculated using the adjusted criteria by region.
New York City’s robust economy provides the largest average potential raise, but its preponderance of higher skill work limits its number of transitions. To illustrate this, note how much higher New York City’s average wage was compared to the other regions, according to QCEW data from 2023.
Loading..........
The Data is Not Available
Source: Calculated using data from OEWS and O*NET.
Figure 14, Regional Average Wage
Despite this, New York City ranks fourth in terms of the number of top transitions. Western New York, which is in the midst of an ongoing “slow and steady” recovery from the recession induced by the COVID-19 pandemic (Glass, 2025), has the largest number of transitions, though only half the average wage of New York City.
Loading..........
The Data is Not Available
Source: Calculated using data from OEWS and O*NET.
Research Question 4: How does the demand for KSAs vary by occupational education requirements and pay level?
We defined the top KSAs within the destination occupations involved in top transitions as those which had importance and level scores of 4.0 or over, and paired them with the education level usually required for entry into the destination occupation in the pairing. We determined the top KSA/educational pairings in all top transitions by calculating the percentage of employment, in top transitions, within which each KSA was required and paired with a given level of education typically required for entering into a destination occupation.
In terms of percentage of total employment, the top 25 KSAs and typical education required for entry in top transitions were as follows.
Figure 15, The Top In-Demand KSAs and Education Levels in Top Transitions
*Weighted by 2020 employment
Postsecondary: Postsecondary non-degree award
Some college: Some college, no degree
Source: Calculated using data from OEWS and O*NET.
While we focused on tasks to determine similarities between occupations, understanding knowledge, skills, and abilities associated with those tasks is essential in a job search. Simply put, knowledge is what you know – information acquired through education, training, or experience. Various spheres of knowledge represent second-most of the top in-demand KSAs in top transitions (10 of 25) and range from customer service to mechanics. Skills are what you can do, often developed through practice. They include hard skills like accounting or coding to soft skills like speaking, monitoring, active listening, and troubleshooting, which are the only four skills that appear in the top in-demand KSAs, each time paired with high school as the most-commonly-required typical education needed for entry a destination occupation within a given top transition. Lastly, abilities can be thought of as your potential – more general capabilities or aptitudes that allow you to apply skills and knowledge. Eleven abilities appear on the top 25 list of KSAs, making it the most-numerous category of attributes. The top abilities are oral expression and oral comprehension.
Most KSAs are paired with high school or equivalent as the typical education needed for entry into the destination occupation. This reflects the fact that, as related above (see Figure 2), this level of education is by far the most-popular educational pairing in top transitions.